Energy Watch Group Wants Higher-Caliber & ‘Realistic’ Energy Projections From IEA

  • Published on December 18th, 2015 by

An international network of scientists and parliamentarians, Energy Watch Group, is interested in better work from the IEA. The Energy Watch Group (EWG) wants higher-caliber reporting and realistic scenarios from the IEA. Christian Breyer, Professor for Solar Economy at the Lappeenranta University of Technology in Finland and lead author of the recent EWG study, said, “We need urgent help of journalists and civil society to find out the real reasons for these continuous incorrect IEA projections for solar PV and wind energy.”

The EWG reports that the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2015 “once again” dramatically underestimated the potential of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy.

EnergyGlobal.com wrties, “the decline in the expansion of the wind and solar energy, projected by the WEO2015, is not correct, the EWG assessment shows.”

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The recent study shows that the IEA, for 10 years, “has been continuously publishing misleading projections on solar PV and wind energy.”

The WEO vitally affects the political and economic decisions of world governments regarding energy matters. As EnergyGlobal.com explains,

“The WEO 2015 shows one cannot take the IEA seriously as a credible energy analyst any longer,” President of the Energy Watch Group and former Member of the German Parliament Hans-Josef Fell said. “Despite its own warnings of limited investments in the oil business, the IEA predicts a further increase in the oil production until 2030. Meanwhile, the actually occurring rapid development of renewable energy is downplayed. This way the IEA increasingly turns into a cause of the global warming.”

As noted again in EnergyGlobal.com, in spite of the “exponential growth of solar PV and wind power in the last decades,” the IEA conjectures linear growth (for solar and wind), meaning no growth in the annual installation capacities. The article points out that, in fact, the annual market growth of wind energy has been just under 10% since 2000, and solar PV higher by a good measure. “Bloomberg New Energy Finance (market analyses) and IHS forecast a 10% or more annual market growth of solar PV in the coming years.” Why not the IEA?

It seems almost tragic that, in its baseline “New Policy Scenario,” the IEA rather sees wind and solar PV markets diminishing: “the annual added capacity for the period 2015 to 2040 is respectively 20% and 40% lower than the current levels.” Giving a still diminished yet supposedly “optimistic” take in “450 Scenario,” the IEA assumes no (0%) annual market growth for both technologies.

“Although the IEA spreads positive messages in its WEO presentations, the actual figures show serious errors and inadequately low forecasts for sustainable energy technologies, which are the least expensive form of energy supply in a growing number of regions in the world,” Christian Breyer, Professor for Solar Economy at the Lappeenranta University of Technology in Finland and lead author of the recent EWG study, said.

In an eariler story this month on CleanTechnica.com, Giles Parkinson did highlight corrections from the IEA regarding more ridiculous claims from Bjorn Lomborg. But there’s still much need for improvement.

Related Stories:

Energy Watch Group Questions International Energy Agency’s Credibility

IEA Report: Australian Rooftop Solar Is Among Cheapest In The World

IEA Report: Australian Rooftop Solar Is Among Cheapest In The World

IEA: $13.5 Trillion Climate Investment Needed By 2030

Image: EnergyWatchGroup

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  • neroden

    Good that someone’s working on this.

    The IEA projections for solar and wind have been a laughingstock for over 10 years, as they’ve been low every single time for at least that long (probably more like 20 years). A conservative exponential projection gives much more realistic numbers, since both solar and wind have been on exponential growth curves since the 1970s.