global solar PV Archives

Originally published on CleanTechnica
by Joshua S Hill

The global installed capacity of solar PV is expected to increase from 49.77 gigawatts per anum to 69.86 gigawatts by 2020, but declines in module prices will see the market value drop from $39.71 billion in 2016 to $33.43 billion in 2020.

These are the mixed findings from the latest report from research and consulting firm GlobalData, which released its new report this week analyzing the global solar market through 2020. With capacity increasing slowly over the next four years, the real story is the decline in solar PV module prices during the forecast period which will lead to an overall decrease in market value.

GlobalData points to “competitive market conditions” and the existing price sensitivity as key to the topsy-turvy conclusions from their new report.

“With the year-on-year reduction in global module prices, the projects have less capital investment and have driven the solar power system installations on the whole,” explained Praveen Kumar Ama, GlobalData’s Analyst covering Power.

“The crystalline silicon (c-Si) and thin-film modules have seen large price drops since 2010. The average price of a module was approximately $2.17 per watt and $1.99 per watt in 2010 for c-Si and thin-film modules, respectively. Module prices fell sharply in 2011 due to a production rush, leading to oversupply.

“Falling prices stabilized starting 2014 and reached $0.61 per watt and $0.60 per watt in 2015 for c-Si and thin-film module, respectively. This price is expected to fall further during the forecast period, reaching $0.48 per watt and $0.46 per watt for c-Si and thin-film module, respectively, by 2020.”

On top of the falling module prices, GlobalData points to the uncertainty in future energy policy as being a further driver of market decline over the next four years.

“Despite climate concerns, some countries have either rolled back incentive schemes or reduced the level of incentive, which has raised uncertainty over the profitability of solar projects,” Ama continued. “This may hamper the growth of solar installations worldwide. For instance, Feed-in Tariff (FiT) levels have been reduced in the UK and Japan. Japan has also proposed changes in its FiT structure, which will have a negative impact on the growth of the solar PV sector.”

Global solar PV demand will reach 59 GW in 2015 due to rising Asian and US deployment rates, says information and analysis firm IHS.

Earlier this year, IHS published global solar demand forecasts for 2015, predicting global solar PV would grow by 30% over 2014 numbers, reaching 57 GW. Speaking at the SNEC 9^th (2015) International Photovoltaic Power Generation Conference & Exhibition in Shanghai in April, IHS analysts looked to China to be the leading driver of this growth. Ash Sharma, senior research director for IHS, stated that, “for the third year running, China will be the largest end-market and the key driver of global demand in 2015.”

“China will be the largest driver of global growth, but it also presents the largest single risk to the industry’s supply-demand balance,” noted Sharma. “If the country manages to install in excess of 17 GW in 2015—which is likely—it will generate much healthier operating conditions for solar companies and a return to healthy profit margins.”

Fast-forward to October, and IHS has had to again revise its 2015 and 2016 estimates due to rising growth in the US and in China. Specifically, IHS is predicting total 2015 global solar PV demand to reach 59 GW, up 33% on 2014 figures, while 2016 is forecast to reach 65 GW, a revision of more than 2 GW up on previous IHS estimates for the year.

Two main reasons underlie the need to revise estimates, according to IHS:

“first, an acceleration of projects in the United States, ahead of the solar investment tax credit (ITC) expiration; and, second, faster growth in China, led by a likely increase in long-term government targets.”

Growth in 2016 over 2015 figures is expected to drop to a reasonable 12%, and total cumulative global solar PV will surpass 300 GW, in advance of a lacklustre 2017 that will be caused, at least in part, by the likely expiration of the US production and investment tax credits.

“IHS Technology already had one of the most bullish forecasts in the industry,” said Ash Sharma, senior research director for IHS. “But due to accelerated and expanded deployment in the United States, as well as in China, India and other countries in Asia, our forecast has increased further.”

global solar PV

Global Solar PV Capacity To Increase As Falling Costs See Market Value Decline

IHS Raises 2015 Global Solar PV Forecast To 59 GW