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IEA

The Totally Insane Carbon Bubble

by Joshua S Hill February 9, 2017

Originally published on CleanTechnica
by Zachary Shahan

As the cleantech transition speeds up, many of us are jumping for joy. Trump may be king of tweetland, but he and his oil & gas buddies can’t stop renewables or electric robotaxis. They know that.

Their goals are pretty clear, though: pump up the carbon bubble as much as possible, stuff as much cash into their own bank accounts before it pops, and hopefully retire and die before the whole global economy is brought down with the the thin soapy liquid that was probably much prettier as a bubble.

(Okay, I’ll admit it — Trump probably doesn’t realize there’s a carbon bubble and that cleantech is ready to pop it, but plenty of his hired henchmen certainly do.)

Photo by the Kremlin

I’m not the first to point out this issue. A few years ago when I was here in the UAE for Masdar’s Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, Andrew Winston was in our media group and kept asking basically anyone with influence, “What do you think of stranded assets?” He didn’t really need — and didn’t get — answers. The question delivered the point well enough. In simpler terms: “Renewable energy — great, fun! Our whole economy collapsing when trillions of dollars of assets quickly turn into useless pieces of junk and liabilities — uh oh.”

Someone else coined the term “carbon bubble” a few years earlier (perhaps Bill McKibben). Alex Steffen recently wrote a great piece on that topic as well that was widely loved and shared. Some researchers have tried to quantify the carbon bubble and put it at $20 trillion, while others put it at $100 trillion. Whatever the total amount of the bubble is, it isn’t small.

Image by Felix Mueller (some rights reserved)

The carbon bubble has long been clear, but it is becoming almost palpable … especially here at a renewable energy summit in the oil-rich Middle East.

But before discussing that oddity, let’s take this threat to its logical economic conclusion: If the investment community puts trillions of dollars into the coal, oil, and gas industries expecting many trillions more in returns, and then these industries collapse, the global economy is going to come crashing down as well. We got a short preview of that with the US housing bubble and the “dot com” bubble. A short preview.

Wait, actually, as Alex Steffen pointed out, it’s not the point of collapse that will bring the whole thing down — it’s the point at which the investment community stops acting psychotic and decides it’s time to get out of fossils. When investors really start to bail, well, we know how prone investors and traders are to bipolar swings.

Photo by IRENA (some rights reserved)

As I said, the thing that struck me today — at the International Renewable Energy Agency’s General Assembly — is that this coming pop, this explosion of the carbon bubble, this ensuing global disruption, is becoming palpable.

One of the world’s top renewable energy experts expressed a bit of bewilderment on the sidelines when I asked him what he thought of some of the hydrogen-related comments that had just been made by Engie and Statoil — he noted, in what seemed like slightly confused surprise, that there had been several other comments about hydrogen today and yesterday already — unlike in previous years. What’s up with that? Where did that come from? Hydrogen? Didn’t we debunk the “vast potential” of that option years ago? (Yes, I’m projecting a lot and don’t fully know what this expert thought of it all.)

There was a focused repetition on the extremely low cost of renewables in various sessions and several of the industry leaders’ and political leaders’ statements, but certain players kept hyping hydrogen.

Photo by IRENA (some rights reserved)

February 9, 2017 0 comment

Energy Watch Group Wants Higher-Caliber & ‘Realistic’ Energy Projections From IEA

by Cynthia December 18, 2015

written by Cynthia

An international network of scientists and parliamentarians, Energy Watch Group, is interested in better work from the IEA. The Energy Watch Group (EWG) wants higher-caliber reporting and realistic scenarios from the IEA. Christian Breyer, Professor for Solar Economy at the Lappeenranta University of Technology in Finland and lead author of the recent EWG study, said, “We need urgent help of journalists and civil society to find out the real reasons for these continuous incorrect IEA projections for solar PV and wind energy.”

The EWG reports that the World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2015 “once again” dramatically underestimated the potential of solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy.

EnergyGlobal.com wrties, “the decline in the expansion of the wind and solar energy, projected by the WEO2015, is not correct, the EWG assessment shows.”

The recent study shows that the IEA, for 10 years, “has been continuously publishing misleading projections on solar PV and wind energy.”

The WEO vitally affects the political and economic decisions of world governments regarding energy matters. As EnergyGlobal.com explains,

“The WEO 2015 shows one cannot take the IEA seriously as a credible energy analyst any longer,” President of the Energy Watch Group and former Member of the German Parliament Hans-Josef Fell said. “Despite its own warnings of limited investments in the oil business, the IEA predicts a further increase in the oil production until 2030. Meanwhile, the actually occurring rapid development of renewable energy is downplayed. This way the IEA increasingly turns into a cause of the global warming.”

As noted again in EnergyGlobal.com, in spite of the “exponential growth of solar PV and wind power in the last decades,” the IEA conjectures linear growth (for solar and wind), meaning no growth in the annual installation capacities. The article points out that, in fact, the annual market growth of wind energy has been just under 10% since 2000, and solar PV higher by a good measure. “Bloomberg New Energy Finance (market analyses) and IHS forecast a 10% or more annual market growth of solar PV in the coming years.” Why not the IEA?

It seems almost tragic that, in its baseline “New Policy Scenario,” the IEA rather sees wind and solar PV markets diminishing: “the annual added capacity for the period 2015 to 2040 is respectively 20% and 40% lower than the current levels.” Giving a still diminished yet supposedly “optimistic” take in “450 Scenario,” the IEA assumes no (0%) annual market growth for both technologies.

“Although the IEA spreads positive messages in its WEO presentations, the actual figures show serious errors and inadequately low forecasts for sustainable energy technologies, which are the least expensive form of energy supply in a growing number of regions in the world,” Christian Breyer, Professor for Solar Economy at the Lappeenranta University of Technology in Finland and lead author of the recent EWG study, said.

In an eariler story this month on CleanTechnica.com, Giles Parkinson did highlight corrections from the IEA regarding more ridiculous claims from Bjorn Lomborg. But there’s still much need for improvement.

IEA Solar Report Provides Wealth of Information (14 Charts)

by James Ayre October 16, 2014

written by James Ayre

The newest edition of the Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme report was recently released by the IEA — detailing a huge quantity of different aspects of the global solar PV market as well as country- and region-specific solar PV markets.

This 19th edition of the report provides a number of highly interesting/useful graphs, some of which are posted below. Providing visual representations for everything from the 20 largest single-country solar PV power capacity additions from the last five years, to the contribution of electricity from solar PV systems relative to overall country electricity demand, to which solar PV market incentives and enablers have most driven solar PV growth, etc.

Enjoy.

Germany’s steadily high installations for years keep it at the top in terms of cumulative solar PV capacity, but that may change in 2014 thanks to another year with a huge red bubble floating far above the rest.

Here’s a table if you’re into tables or lists.

And here’s a broader look at the 2013 breakdown. China and Japan together account for ~half of all solar PV power installation.

But Germany is still far ahead in terms of total cumulative solar PV capacity… We’ll see if it stays there after 2014. The US, sadly, sits at #5 despite being the 3rd-most-populated country in the world and the richest.

Notice Europe’s shrinking market share. However, that’s not just due to shrinking solar PV markets in Europe — it’s also due to strong growth in North America and Asia… especially Asia.

It’s fascinating here to look at how the electricity from solar PV is differently “consumed.” Also, congrats to Italy for leading the way on this chart — nice solar resources help, but that’s certainly not the only factor at play! The US and China actually perform pretty horribly from this angle. Europe dominates the top rankings.

We still have a long way to go.

That’s some strong growth.

Somewhat crazy how much three countries contribute to the 2013 total. The story will be similar in 2014.

Feed-in tariffs are still the premier market enabler for solar PV power. Note, also, that self-consumption and “pure competitive EV” is already making up 5% of the pie.

As far as renewables go, more mature wind still dominates.

China dominates solar cell production. Who knew?

While there is often talk of Chinese solar cell and solar module producers killing US and German companies, we can see here that US and German solar cell production never came close to Chinese production even as far back as 2010, or even Taiwanese production for that matter. But there’s no denying that the German market collapsed in 2010.

Chinese domination is even stronger in the module business.

Source: IEA, via Sustainnovate

October 16, 2014 0 comment

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Global Solar PV Capacity Close To (Or Over) 100 GW

by James Ayre April 12, 2013

written by James Ayre

Total global solar photovoltaic capacity is fast approaching the 100 gigawatt (100,000 megawatt) milestone, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. The report notes that even with some uncertainty present about the future state of photovoltaics in the European and Chinese markets, that global installed capacity will almost definitely hit the 100 gigawatt (GW) milestone within the year. In fact, it likely already has, probably sometime within the first quarter.

Furthermore, here’s a fact that is not well known: more solar PV power capacity was installed in 2011 than power capacity from any other source. And the same was true in 2012.

Solar panels in the Alps.

The new report states that a total of 28.4 GW of new solar photovoltaic capacity were installed during 2012, which brings total global capacity up to 89.5 GW.

PV-Tech continues: “The report, Snapshot of Global PV by the International Energy Agency, looked at 23 countries. It said that another estimated 7 GW of capacity is in the pipeline which would increase the total to 96.5. GW from 2011’s 28.9 GW. And the agency said that with installations worldwide difficult to quantify with precision, the 100GW milestone has already been passed in the first quarter of this year.”

There is some disparity, though, between the new IEA report and other recent analyses, such as those from the market research firm IHS, and NPD Solarbuzz. IHS’s newest report estimated global PV installations in 2012 at 31.4 GW, and NPD Solarbuzz estimated 29 GW.

Continuing on with the report’s contents: Europe currently represents 59% of the global market, but rapid growth in the Asia Pacific region and the Americas is lessening that difference. The Middle East and Africa are both regions “in development,” but with great potential. China was the second-largest PV market for new installations in 2012, beating out the US and Italy. And China is now the third-largest PV market in terms of total capacity.

Gaëtan Masson, Operating Agent for Task 1 IEA-PVPS, stated: “Europe will decrease, with little doubt. Mainly because of the unsustainable level the market reached in some countries. Subsidy cuts are indeed responsible for the inability of the market in Europe to maintain itself at the level it reached… but the transition period from the current market to that new, sustainable one, could push the market down during some years.”

April 12, 2013 0 comment

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Shell Bullish On Solar Despite Dropping Solar (But Much More In Its New Scenarios Than That)

by Zach March 3, 2013

written by Zach

The solar manufacturing industry is now a highly competitive industry. Solar module companies that can’t compete are dropping like icicles on a warm spring day. Shell dropped out of the solar module race in 2006, giving its solar business to SolarWorld.

Source: Shell

Nonetheless, Shell is still quite bullish on solar energy in the long term. In one of the two future energy scenarios it just released (the New Lens Scenarios), it projected that solar would become the largest source of energy by 2070.

Solar industry enthusiasts (which I assume most of you are) know that solar power has grown tremendously in the past several years — to be specific, from about 1 gigawatt (GW) in 2000 to about 102 GW at the end of 2012. It is still a small piece of the energy or even electricity pie, but it’s growing fast. And, most importantly, it looks like it will have a very bright future.

In both of Shell’s new scenarios, which are led by Jeremy Bentham (Vice President Business Environment and Head of Shell Scenarios), the company sees global CO2 emissions dropping to zero by 2100, but through very different means. In the first, its projection is that solar will account for 37.7% of primary energy use by 2100. The company is also bullish on natural gas, electric vehicles, hydrogen (as a transportation fuel source and resource for electricity storage), biofuels, and wind power (compared to other energy sources). But there’s much more to the story than these simple statements.

Oceans & Mountains

The report includes some interesting discussions of the increasing competition between the U.S. and China; globalization, and some of the complex issues that come with that; three paradoxes, which it calles the prosperity paradox, the connectivity paradox, and the leadership paradox; the structure of the global economy; and other interesting matters.

Following that setting of the stage, Bentham and his team at Shell delve in its two new scenarios — Oceans and Mountains. They write: “These scenarios are designed to provide new lenses through which to explore these issues – or, as we explore these contrasting worlds, two panoramas: high Mountains where the beneﬁts of an elevated position are exercised and protected, and those who are currently inﬂuential hold on to power; and wide Oceans with rising tides, strong currents, and a volatile churn of actors and events with an irregular accommodation of competing interests. These panoramas have distinctive social, economic, and political features that can be discerned over the next 20 years or so, with consequences for energy developments over half a century. Together these shape ecological outlooks beyond 2100. They form the New Lens Scenarios for the 21st century.”

For those of us concerned about societal suicide through climate change, neither scenario is particularly optimistic. In Mountains, world temperatures increase well beyond 2°C by 2050 (a politically agreed upon target that is still concerning in the level of catastrophe it brings to humanity). Really, the Mountains scenario relies on a great deal of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in the second half of the century in order to reach zero net CO2 emissions by 2100:

March 3, 2013 9 comments