If you’ve been watching the UK solar market over the past couple of years, you’ll know the momentum has been building fast. But what’s coming in 2026 looks set to blow everything we’ve seen so far out of the water.
- The UK solar market is forecast to grow by 50% year-on-year in 2026, adding between 5 and 5.5 GW of new capacity — comfortably the best year on record.
- Ground-mount solar is expected to surge by up to 60%, potentially hitting 4 GW of new installations for the first time ever.
- Rooftop solar continues climbing, with residential installations forecast to grow around 20% and commercial rooftop seeing similar gains.
- Grid connection delays and workforce shortages remain the biggest hurdles standing between the industry and its full potential.
UK Solar Capacity Set for a Record-Breaking 2026
The numbers tell a striking story. After adding roughly 2.6 GW of new solar capacity in 2025 — itself a ten-year high — the UK is now on course to nearly double that figure this year.
Industry analysts are forecasting between 5 and 5.5 GW of new solar PV capacity to be deployed across the UK in 2026. If that target is hit, it would comfortably surpass the previous annual record of 4.3 GW set all the way back in 2015 during the feed-in tariff boom.
Total installed solar capacity in the UK stood at approximately 21.6 GW at the close of 2025. By the end of this year, that figure could push past 27 GW — moving the country significantly closer to the government’s Clean Power 2030 target of 45–47 GW.
Where Is the Growth Coming From?
The big driver in 2026 is ground-mount solar. Large-scale solar farms have been growing their share of annual installations year after year, making up around 70% of new capacity added in 2025. That trend is accelerating.
Ground-mount installations alone could reach 4 GW this year — a figure that would have seemed wildly optimistic just three years ago. Several factors are fuelling this surge:
- Contracts for Difference (CfD) deadlines — 26 CfD-backed solar projects with a combined capacity of around 790 MW have longstop dates falling in 2026, meaning developers must commission them or risk losing their contracts.
- Planning approvals under the NSIP process — since taking office, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has signed off on gigawatts of new large-scale solar, including landmark schemes like the 500 MW Heckington Fen and 500 MW Gate Burton projects.
- An active construction pipeline — some 4.2 GW of utility-scale solar PV was already under construction heading into 2026.
On the rooftop side, residential solar panel installations are expected to grow by around 20%. That builds on a record-breaking 2025, during which over 262,000 certified domestic installations were completed — the highest annual total ever recorded by the MCS accreditation body.
Commercial rooftop solar is forecast to see similar growth, driven by rising non-commodity electricity charges and businesses looking to take more control of their energy costs.
How Does 2026 Compare to Previous Years?
To put this year’s projections into context, here’s how annual UK solar deployment has evolved:
| Year | Approximate New Capacity Added | Key Milestone |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 4.3 GW | Previous annual record (FiT-driven) |
| 2023 | ~1.8 GW | Market recovery begins |
| 2024 | ~2.2 GW | Ground-mount share grows to 60% |
| 2025 | ~2.6 GW | Cleve Hill (373 MW) commissioned; record rooftop year |
| 2026 (forecast) | 5–5.5 GW | Expected new annual record |
The jump from 2025 to 2026 would represent roughly 50% year-on-year growth for the second consecutive year — a pace of expansion the UK solar industry hasn’t sustained since the early subsidy-driven years.
Government Policy Is Providing Real Tailwinds
It’s fair to say the Labour government’s stance on solar has been one of the most enabling policy environments the sector has experienced. The Clean Power 2030 Action Plan, published in late 2024, set out a target of 45–47 GW of solar capacity by the end of the decade — more than doubling current levels.
Several policy moves are directly supporting 2026 deployment:
The revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF), implemented in December 2024, now requires local planning authorities to give “significant weight” to the benefits of renewable energy projects. This has already led to a noticeable uptick in planning submissions, with Q2 2025 seeing the highest capacity submitted in history.
The upcoming Future Homes Standard and Future Buildings Standard are expected to make rooftop solar effectively mandatory on most new-build properties in England. While the fine details are still awaited, the signal alone has energised the residential and commercial sectors.
The government’s Warm Homes Plan is also offering cash grants and state-backed loans to support household solar and battery installations, giving the retrofit market a meaningful boost.
Solar and Battery Storage: A Growing Partnership
One of the clearest trends heading into 2026 is the growing co-location of solar PV with battery energy storage systems (BESS). Industry analysts at Cornwall Insight expect more than 1 GW of new behind-the-meter solar and storage capacity to be deployed this year alone.
The economics are straightforward. With non-commodity charges forecast to make up nearly 60% of a typical business electricity bill in 2026, on-site generation paired with storage offers a compelling route to lower costs and reduced grid dependence.
For utility-scale projects, co-location is increasingly attractive in an era of limited grid connection capacity and growing hours of negative wholesale pricing. However, the lack of headroom in the connections queue for new standalone battery storage assets remains a challenge.
What Could Slow Things Down?
Despite the bullish outlook, the path to 5 GW is far from guaranteed. Several risks could drag on deployment:
Grid connection delays are arguably the single biggest concern. Even with grid reform underway, some projects that hold Q4 2026 connection dates have not yet started construction. More worryingly, some completed projects are sitting idle for up to 18 months waiting for their commercial operation date — a problem that grid reform alone won’t immediately fix.
Workforce and supply chain pressures are also intensifying. As the pipeline of projects under construction grows, the demand for skilled installers, electricians and project managers is outstripping supply. Several industry bodies have flagged the urgent need for investment in training and certification programmes.
Planning refusals remain a thorn in the industry’s side. While the revised NPPF has helped, over 20% of solar capacity decided at local planning authority level in 2025 was refused. Appeals are increasingly contested too, with a recent uptick in refusals at the appeal stage.
What This Means for the UK’s Clean Energy Targets
If the UK does manage to add 5 GW or more of solar this year, it would be a significant step toward the 45–47 GW target for 2030. But the maths still requires sustained, rapid growth over the rest of the decade.
To put it simply: even after a record 2026, the UK would need to average roughly 5 GW of new solar every year through to 2030. That’s achievable on paper — particularly with the planning pipeline now bulging with approved and in-progress projects — but it demands that grid connections, supply chains and the workforce all keep pace.
The longer-term target of 70 GW by 2035, outlined in the UK Solar Roadmap, will require the industry to maintain this tempo well beyond the current parliamentary term.
The Bottom Line
2026 is shaping up to be a watershed year for UK solar energy. The combination of a massive construction pipeline, supportive government policy, CfD contract deadlines and growing demand for on-site generation is creating the conditions for record-breaking deployment.
Whether the industry can fully capitalise depends largely on solving the grid connection bottleneck and scaling up the workforce fast enough. But even a conservative reading of the forecasts suggests we’re about to see the UK’s solar market hit a gear it’s never been in before.
For homeowners, businesses and investors alike, the message is clear: UK solar is no longer a niche play. It’s becoming a cornerstone of the national energy system — and 2026 is the year that shift becomes impossible to ignore.
If you’re considering joining the solar revolution, you can calculate your potential solar panel savings or explore how pairing solar with battery storage could work for your home or business.
