Yes, solar panel prices have fallen dramatically over the past decade and continue to decline, though the rate of decrease has slowed considerably. The cost of solar panels themselves has dropped by around 90% since 2010, making solar power one of the great cost-reduction success stories in energy technology. However, overall system installation costs in the UK have stabilised in recent years, as panels now represent a smaller portion of total costs.
The question of whether to wait for further price drops is common among prospective buyers. While prices may continue to fall modestly, the savings you miss by waiting often outweigh any future discount. Every month without solar is another month of electricity bills at today’s high prices – and those bills add up faster than prices are falling.
This guide covers historical solar price trends, what’s driving costs down, current UK pricing, future predictions, and whether waiting for cheaper solar makes financial sense.
Historical Price Trends
Global Panel Price History
| Year | Price per Watt | Drop from 2010 |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | ~$2.00/W | – |
| 2015 | ~$0.55/W | 72% |
| 2020 | ~$0.25/W | 88% |
| 2024 | ~$0.15/W | 92% |
| 2026 | ~$0.12/W | 94% |
UK System Installation Costs
| Year | 4kW System Cost | Cost per kW |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | £12,000-£16,000 | £3,000-£4,000 |
| 2015 | £6,500-£8,500 | £1,625-£2,125 |
| 2020 | £5,000-£6,500 | £1,250-£1,625 |
| 2022 | £6,000-£8,000 | £1,500-£2,000 |
| 2026 | £5,000-£7,000 | £1,250-£1,750 |
Prices temporarily increased in 2022 due to the energy crisis driving massive demand, post-COVID supply chain disruption, shipping cost spikes, and installers unable to meet demand. Prices have since normalised and resumed their downward trend.
Current UK Pricing (2026)
Typical System Costs
| System Size | Price Range | Price per kW |
|---|---|---|
| 3kW (8-10 panels) | £4,000-£5,500 | £1,333-£1,833 |
| 4kW (10-12 panels) | £5,000-£7,000 | £1,250-£1,750 |
| 5kW (12-15 panels) | £6,000-£8,500 | £1,200-£1,700 |
| 6kW (15-18 panels) | £7,000-£10,000 | £1,167-£1,667 |
| 8kW (20-24 panels) | £9,000-£13,000 | £1,125-£1,625 |
Cost Breakdown
| Component | % of Total | Cost (4kW) |
|---|---|---|
| Solar panels | 30-40% | £1,500-£2,500 |
| Inverter | 15-20% | £750-£1,200 |
| Labour/installation | 25-35% | £1,250-£2,100 |
| Mounting system | 8-12% | £400-£700 |
| Scaffolding | 5-10% | £300-£600 |
| Electrical/admin | 8-13% | £400-£800 |
Why system costs aren’t falling as fast: Panels now represent only 30-40% of total costs. Labour, scaffolding, and installation costs have actually risen, offsetting much of the panel price reduction.
Should You Wait?
The Maths of Waiting
| Potential saving (1 year wait) | £300-£600 (5-10% reduction) |
| Lost electricity savings (1 year) | £500-£1,000+ |
| Net position if you wait | Often worse off |
| Verdict | Usually don’t wait |
Arguments Against Waiting
| Factor | Impact |
|---|---|
| Lost savings | Every month = electricity bills you could avoid |
| Electricity prices | May rise, increasing your losses |
| Price floor approaching | Panels near minimum viable cost |
| Labour costs rising | Offsetting panel price drops |
| Grant availability | Current schemes may change |
When Waiting Might Make Sense
| Situation | Consideration |
|---|---|
| New roof needed soon | Do roof first; panels second |
| Moving house soon | Wait for new property |
| Major technology shift | Unlikely in near term |
| Budget constraints | Save up; but don’t wait indefinitely |
Battery Price Outlook
| Year | Price per kWh | 5kWh Battery |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | £550-£700 | £2,750-£3,500 |
| 2022 | £500-£650 | £2,500-£3,250 |
| 2024 | £400-£550 | £2,000-£2,750 |
| 2026 | £350-£500 | £1,750-£2,500 |
Battery prices are falling faster than panel prices. If budget is tight, a valid approach is to install panels now and add battery storage in a few years when prices have dropped further. Most systems can accommodate batteries added later.
Getting Best Value Now
Price Comparison Tips
| Strategy | Potential Saving |
|---|---|
| Get 3+ quotes | 10-25% |
| Off-peak installation (winter) | 5-15% |
| Negotiate | 5-10% |
| Compare like-for-like | Fair comparison |
| End of quarter timing | Installers meeting targets |
Summary
Solar panel prices have fallen dramatically – around 90% since 2010 – and continue to decline, though at a slower rate than historically. Panel costs are now so low that they represent only 30-40% of total installation costs, with labour, inverters, and mounting systems making up the rest. These other components have smaller cost-reduction potential, meaning overall system prices won’t fall as dramatically as they once did.
Waiting for cheaper solar rarely makes financial sense. While you might save £300-600 by delaying a year, you’ll lose £500-1,000 or more in electricity bill savings during that time. The maths almost always favours buying now rather than waiting for marginally lower prices.
If you’re considering solar, focus on getting the best current value rather than timing the market. Get multiple quotes, compare quality not just price, and install when you’re ready. The benefits of solar start the day your system goes live – every day of delay is a day of savings you’re missing.
Battery prices are falling faster than panel prices, so if budget is tight, one valid strategy is to install panels now and add battery storage in a few years when prices have dropped further. Most systems can accommodate batteries added later.
For current pricing, see our solar panel costs guide. To calculate your potential savings, use our solar panel calculator.
