34.5 GW Of Solar In 2013, Mercom Capital Projects

I’ve seen two or three projections for new solar power capacity in 2013. They seem to be hovering between 30 GW and 35 GW. Mercom Capital Group is reportedly projecting 34.5 GW.

Former Maldives President Nasheed installing solar panels on his home. Photo Credit: 350.org/ Mohamed Ali (some rights reserved)

Mercom is attributing the solar power growth to low solar module prices as well as strong policies and potential in China, India, and Japan. As I just reported, India is aiming to add 8 GW of solar power by 2017. China is allocating $2 billion for solar power projects included in its Golden Sun Program, and is also giving out direct subsidies of 40 cents per watt. Meanwhile, Japan has a strong feed-in tariff for solar that has gotten its biggest banks into the solar game and bullish on the emerging market (not to mention citizens and investors from outside Japan).

The U.S., as I reported this week, is also looking to have a record year. It seems likely that more solar power will be added to the grid than any type of power other than natural gas.

Furthermore, while European leaders, including world leader Germany, won’t have a good a year as the past few, Europe will still install a good bit of solar power capacity.

What do you think — is 34.5 GW a bit high, too low, or just right?

joseph

Dear website programmers. Could you please give the user the ability to remove the twitter bar. It is always annoying, but sometimes it is so big (up to 20% of the screen) that is makes it impossible to read the articles.
- http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan
  
  you mean the sharing bar on the left? wasn’t aware of that. i don’t think this bar has such an option, so may simply have to remove it.
http://www.facebook.com/people/Fred-Kraybill/689701923 Fred Kraybill

Considering that China is planning to install 10 GW of solar in 2013 and I believe projections for the US are 4.3 GW of solar in 2013, then I think the rest of the world could easily do 20.7 GW or more to meet the high end of the predictions. Even if Europe drops off somewhat in solar for 2013, the market for solar is really heating up in Japan, India and some other countries. I also find it interesting that solar is building momentum to the point that it may begin to catch wind power in installed capacity. Worldwide wind will cross the 300 GW mark this year and solar will cross the 100 GW mark this year. But if solar continues to accelerate it may start to catch up to wind power. That brings up a question I have. What is the average capacity factor for wind vs solar. It seems to me that wind power gets close to twice the capacity factor as solar. What has your research shown on this Zach? In spite of the lower capacity factor for solar one of it’s big advantages is the fact that solar generates most of its electricity during the peak period of demand.
- http://zacharyshahan.com/ Zachary Shahan
  
  Yes, I know Germany (and think Italy) already have more solar power capacity than wind power capacity. I know wind power has gotten its avg capacity factor up to ~40-50%. not sure off the top of my head what solar’s avg is. of course, would vary a lot depending on location.