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Global Solar PV Demand Grows For 10th Straight Year, 2017 Will Be Bigger

by Adam Johnston February 12, 2017

Originally published on CleanTechnica
by Adam Johnston

Firm growth from China will help boost overall global PV demand for the 10th consecutive year, according to a recent report from IHS.

IHS Technology Senior Analyst Josefin Berg said Chinese feed-in tariff (FIT) cuts from last September have created higher-than-projected 4th quarter growth. Berg notes global capacity additions reaching 77 gigawatts (GW) in 2016 and 79 GW in 2017. The former is a projected 34% year-on-year growth rate in 2016, exceeding 2015’s 32% year-on-year growth rate.

The 2015 and 2016 growth were notable, as well, because the global solar PV market hadn’t grown by more than 30% two years in a row since 2010–2011, according to the IHS Technology PV Demand Market Tracker report.

IHS said 2017 solar PV growth would only reach 3% globally, however, due to declines in installations from the US and China, the world’s top solar markets. The report projects that 2017 & 2018 will see single digit advancement in demand, but 2019 will show the market roaring back to another strong growth percentage.

China has dropped its 2020 minimum goals for solar power to 110 GW (from 150 GW originally), IHS said. China’s change of plans shows an estimated downturn in additional 2018 Chinese installed capacity along with almost zero demand in the following couple of years.

However, this is still enough for China to beat its goals while reaching 169 GW of overall capacity by 2020, the report added. Additionally, China recently stated it is going to invest $361 billion into renewables by 2020 as it seeks to dominate this sector and beat the United States, and the country has cancelled plans for 104 coal power plants (120 GW combined capacity) not long after doing the same for 30 plants (17 GW worth).

“Until China officially publishes the FIT rates, and the timeframe for the reductions, the forecast for total installed capacity in 2017 and the quarterly distribution remain highly uncertain,” added Berg. In general, it seems that China has become a tough market to project — policies keep changing amidst clean energy becoming cheaper than fossil fuels and nuclear.

2017 will also see India leapfrog past Japan as the 3rd largest PV market, IHS predicts. India will install an estimated 10 GW this year. Japan is now 3rd with 8.7 GW in newly projected installations in 2016, while India is 4th with 5.8 GW.

Berg suggests India’s solar market is quickly blossoming and benefiting from reasonable global system costs.

India in recent years committed to increase its solar capacity to mitigate climate change concerns and bring cheap electricity to many more of the people living in India without it, while also protecting against blackouts. In July 2012, 670 million were affected from massive blackouts in the country, thanks to an outdated grid system that could not handle excessive demand from residents’ increasing use of electrical appliances and air conditioners. Chaos ensued, shutting down transit systems for many hours as citizens were forced to deal with extremely hot conditions.

With prices continuing to fall and making solar energy cost-competitive with fossil fuels, the solar market will continue to look good moving forward, but with ups and downs in growth as major policies change.

February 12, 2017 0 comment

IHS Predicts Record Solar PV Module Production & Shipment Through First Half Of 2016

by Joshua S Hill November 10, 2015

written by Joshua S Hill

Analytics company IHS has predicted solar PV production and shipments to skyrocket through the first half of 2016.

In a new forecast published Monday, IHS concluded that “installation deadlines, sunsetting solar tax credits, and other policy dynamics of the two largest global solar markets, China and the United States,” are going to push solar PV production through the roof. IHS predicts that 2015 will see an increase of 33% in global solar PV installations, reaching 58.7 GW, and though that will soften somewhat in 2016 — growth slowing to only 12%, reaching 65.5 GW — the first half of the year will reflect existing situations.

Specifically, anti-dumping trade disputes in the US market will prevent prices from falling through the first half of the year. IHS warned in late-October of a potential shortage of solar PV wafers in the US market, which is also going to play a part in H1’16 production issues.

“Given the current shortage, wafer prices might still rise for a few months, despite declining polysilicon prices,” said Edurne Zoco, senior manager and principal analyst, IHS Technology.

Recently announced additional solar PV quotas in China are expected to be connected by June, 2016, in order to be eligible for 2015 incentives.

Beyond the first half of 2016, however, IHS predicts average selling prices (ASPs) are likely to fall along the module value-chain. IHS predicts a stalling of utility-scale production, which throughout 2017 will see a 7.8 GW decline in annual installations, though the remainder of the global solar PV market will continue to grow, at an estimated 11% in 2017.

“Global PV demand for 2017 will slow, which will adversely affect module ASPs and margins in the second half of 2016,” Zoco said. “There will be some buildup of inventory, and module price declines will be much heavier than they were in 2015 and during the first half of 2016. A slump in global PV demand in 2017 looks increasingly likely, as the United States is expected to suffer a major decline in 2017, following planned significant reductions in the country’s investment tax credit.”

November 10, 2015 0 comment

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IHS Warns Of Potential US Solar Wafer Supply Shortage In 2016

by Joshua S Hill October 30, 2015

written by Joshua S Hill

Information and analysis firm IHS has warned that, as a result of rapid solar installation growth in 2015, the US might encounter a potential solar wafer supply shortage in 2016.

In a IHS Research Note sent out on Thursday, IHS warned that there could be “a potential solar wafer supply shortage throughout the entire supply chain” in 2016, despite the recent announcements of large capacity expansions from leading module suppliers.

“There is increasing likelihood of a potential shortage of tariff-free solar cells in the United States, and several cell and wafer producers are already warning of a potential wafer supply bottleneck in the coming months,” IHS warned. The increase in global demand — which has escalated year after year, increasing 33% in 2015 to reach 58.7 GW, and which is expected to increase again to 65.5 GW in 2016 — has first affected solar module manufacturers, but is now trickling back up the supply stream, affecting first cells and wafer producers, and now, in the third quarter, polysilicon producers as well.

Unfortunately, though there are expansion plans in the works, IHS believes that the wafer industry’s capacity expansions will not keep pace with the global demand for solar, due in part to the more capital intensive cost of wafer production expansions.

A need for higher efficiency products has also placed a strain on the supply stream, with IHS claiming that a “large proportion of installations in 2015 require modules at 255 Watts and greater, which use high efficiency wafers.”

IHS believes total wafer production will reach 72.2 GW in 2016, which it believes “could be insufficient to meet demand.”

If demand is to be met, the top 10 producers are going to have to step up, producing 43 GW in 2016. However, IHS is predicting the total production capacity of the top 10 will only reach 36 GW in 2015, meaning a hard road ahead in 2016, especially considering only two companies are currently planning to increase their capacity in 2016 — GCL by 1 GW and Longi by 500 MW, creating a 5.5 GW shortfall.

October 30, 2015 0 comment

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IHS Raises 2015 Global Solar PV Forecast To 59 GW

by Joshua S Hill October 13, 2015

written by Joshua S Hill

Global solar PV demand will reach 59 GW in 2015 due to rising Asian and US deployment rates, says information and analysis firm IHS.

Earlier this year, IHS published global solar demand forecasts for 2015, predicting global solar PV would grow by 30% over 2014 numbers, reaching 57 GW. Speaking at the SNEC 9^th (2015) International Photovoltaic Power Generation Conference & Exhibition in Shanghai in April, IHS analysts looked to China to be the leading driver of this growth. Ash Sharma, senior research director for IHS, stated that, “for the third year running, China will be the largest end-market and the key driver of global demand in 2015.”

“China will be the largest driver of global growth, but it also presents the largest single risk to the industry’s supply-demand balance,” noted Sharma. “If the country manages to install in excess of 17 GW in 2015—which is likely—it will generate much healthier operating conditions for solar companies and a return to healthy profit margins.”

Fast-forward to October, and IHS has had to again revise its 2015 and 2016 estimates due to rising growth in the US and in China. Specifically, IHS is predicting total 2015 global solar PV demand to reach 59 GW, up 33% on 2014 figures, while 2016 is forecast to reach 65 GW, a revision of more than 2 GW up on previous IHS estimates for the year.

Two main reasons underlie the need to revise estimates, according to IHS:

“first, an acceleration of projects in the United States, ahead of the solar investment tax credit (ITC) expiration; and, second, faster growth in China, led by a likely increase in long-term government targets.”

Growth in 2016 over 2015 figures is expected to drop to a reasonable 12%, and total cumulative global solar PV will surpass 300 GW, in advance of a lacklustre 2017 that will be caused, at least in part, by the likely expiration of the US production and investment tax credits.

“IHS Technology already had one of the most bullish forecasts in the industry,” said Ash Sharma, senior research director for IHS. “But due to accelerated and expanded deployment in the United States, as well as in China, India and other countries in Asia, our forecast has increased further.”

October 13, 2015 0 comment

5 GW Of Distributed PV Solar Expected For China This Year

by Jake Richardson August 27, 2014

written by Jake Richardson

Market research firm IHS Technology has reported that almost 5 GW of distributed PV solar could be constructed in China this year. Their prediction for ground-mounted PV solar systems installations is about 8 GW. So, the total for 2014 for China could be close to 13 GW.

A shift away from utility-scale to distributed PV has been noted by IHS as well. Small string inverter shipments have experienced a significant rise. More than 500 MW of string inverter shipments were documented by Huawei in the first half of this year.

In 2013, China installed 12.9 GW of PV, which was a global record. It appears they will be on pace to install about the same amount or a little more this year as well. Europe installed about 11 Gw for that year. The US installed about 4.7 GW of PV in 2013.

China’s killer air pollution is a great incentive to invest heavily in clean, renewable energy. One estimate indicated that several hundred thousand Chinese people die prematurely from air pollution every year.

Another source said the huge nation has one of the highest pollution death rates, “Low- and middle-income countries in the Western Pacific region, including China, had the highest number of deaths per capita, at 172 per 100,000 people, from indoor and outdoor air pollution combined.”

Air pollution from coal might be also be damaging the brain health of children, ‘A March 19 study by Columbia University and Chongqing Medical University, meanwhile, found that babies whose mothers were exposed to a Chinese coal-fired power plant had poorer learning and memory skills.”

Premier Li Keqiang reportedly has said China will declare war on air pollution. Investing in solar power may be a very good way to do this. However, at the same time China is investing in solar, new coal power plants are also being constructed.

Some Chinese air pollution even crosses international borders.

August 27, 2014 0 comment

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Top Solar Module Manufacturers of 2013

by James Ayre May 14, 2014

written by James Ayre

The top 15 solar PV module manufacturers of 2013 have been revealed thanks to a new report from the market research firm IHS.

As many would no doubt guess, the list is dominated — yet again — by firms based in China. But, interestingly, the Japanese firms Sharp and Kyocera saw a bit of a resurgence — up a fair bit from previous years. Japan’s strong feed-in tariffs for solar and Japanese preference for Japan-made products was clearly part of this upswing.

Some other things to note — Yingli Green Energy (aka Yingli Solar) once again took the top spot; 7 out of the top 10 companies were based in China; and the total Chinese share of the market fell 1% to 58% — down from a 59% market share in 2012.

“The year 2013 marked the turnaround of global PV markets and the recovery of leading players in the photovoltaic industry,” stated Jessica Jin, an analyst for solar supply chains at IHS. “Chinese and Japanese PV module suppliers benefited from the surge in demand in their domestic markets, with China in particular accounting for more than a quarter of global installations in 2013 and becoming the leading region in the process.”

IHS provides more:

The Chinese as a group continued to be the star players of the global PV market, but there were also signs pointing to slower growth. While they continue to lead by far, 2013 also marks the second time their overall market share has not risen significantly. Chinese suppliers held a 57% share in 2011, 59% in 2012 and 58% last year.

European companies also maintained stable share in 2013 at 13% — nearly unchanged from 2011 and 2012. In contrast, the Japanese module industry enjoyed an increase to 15%, up from 12% in 2011. Meanwhile, US suppliers fell behind as their portion dropped to 9%, down from 13% in 2011.

While Sharp and Kyocera saw the most substantial rises, a third Japanese firm managed to rank in the top 15 as well, CIS thin-film producer Solar Frontier. Solar Frontier saw shipment growth of more than 60% in 2013.

The IHS report also noted that total global solar PV shipments hit 38.7 GW in 2013 — roughly a 24% increase over the previous year. Interestingly, much of the growth appeared to be from the top players — showing clearly the consolidation of the industry. The top 15 manufacturers held a 59% market share in 2013, up from 51% in 2012.

With regard to the continued consolidation of the solar PV manufacturing industry, that’s something that’s likely going to continue for some time — with the dropping of state-support, in many cases, being one of the main drivers.

That’s exactly what’s happening right now in China, with a recent order by the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology doing a lot to “clean up” the industry — likely finishing off over 75% of the country’s solar panel and related component manufacturers.

Expect to see more of that in the near-future. And just note, this isn’t bad — it’s a natural part of a maturing industry.

May 14, 2014 0 comment

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Solar Power Breaks World Record In Q1, IHS Raises 2014 Forecast To 46,000 MW

by Zach April 8, 2014

written by Zach

Solarbuzz recently reported that world solar PV power capacity grew by a record 9,000 megawatts (MW) in the 1st quarter of 2014. However, that record isn’t likely to last long. The solar market research company forecasts that every quarter this year will be higher than the one before it.

At the end of Q1 2015, Solarbuzz forecasts that the 12-month total will be over 50,000 MW! For 2014, Solarbuzz is maintaining its forecast of 49,000 MW. However, it wouldn’t be surprised to see the world surpass that.

Meanwhile, another market research firm, IHS, just raised its 2014 forecast to 46,000 MW following the strong 1st quarter. That would equal a 22% increase in the market compared to 2013, IHS notes. The main countries driving global installments during 2014 are widely projected to be China and Japan.

However, solar growth in Japan and the UK was particularly responsible for the record 1st quarter, Solarbuzz notes. “These two countries combined accounted for more than one-third of global solar PV demand in Q1’14 and set new quarterly records for PV deployed.”

“This is the fifth straight year that a quarterly record has been set at the start of the year,” said Michael Barker, senior analyst at NPD Solarbuzz. “While demand during the first quarter typically sets the low point for the year, deployment levels during this quarter provide an excellent means of benchmarking demand for the rest of the coming year.”

The 1st quarter of the year tends to account for 20% or less of the year’s total.

“With Q1’14 now closed, the trailing 12-month demand suggests that the true size of the industry today is almost 40 GW. By the end of Q1’15, the PV industry will likely break through the pivotal 50 GW barrier, bringing the industry much closer to rational supply and demand levels.”

Solar manufacturers got slammed with financial difficulties in recent years as supply ramped up a great deal and far surpassed demand. However, many of the big players are back to making a profit and have survived that challenging period. Strong demand growth will only further improving their financial security.

“During the past few years, the solar PV industry has been waiting for end-market demand to catch up with the excess manufacturing capacity added between 2010 and 2012,” added Finlay Colville, vice-president of NPD Solarbuzz. “This wait is now coming to an end. As annual demand approaches the 50 GW level, suppliers will finally be able to shift their focus from short-term tactical survival to long-term strategic planning.”

Getting back to IHS, the market research firm projects that China will install a record 12,800 MW in 2014, more than almost any other country will have in total at that time. And that’s about 29% more than the 10 GW that was projected just last year. 8,000 MW of that are supposed to be ground-mounted projects, while the other 4,800 should be distributed rooftop solar power systems. However, it should be noted that there are a number of analysts who don’t think China will be able to log so many rooftop solar power systems. We’ll see.

While the strong 1st quarter may very well have been at play in the revised IHS forecast, the company actually focuses on Chinese announcements as being an important reason for the change.

“IHS previously expressed its doubts about the Chinese government’s capability to reach an ambitious target of 8GW worth of rooftop solar projects in 2014,” said Ash Sharma, senior director of solar research at IHS. “While IHS still predicts this goal will not be met, China’s recent announcement that it will shift its focus to ground-mount projects and increase its installation target for this segment to 6GW has led us to raise our forecast for 2014.”

Notably, mis-forecast China’s 2013 growth.

Indeed, IHS has previously been sceptical of China’s goal of meeting government targets of around 10GW in 2013, forecasting installations of around 7.5GW. However Chinese officials had said installations had exceeded 10GW late last year, while NPD Solarbuzz estimated installations had reached over 11GW.

IHS was not alone in massively missing the installation growth in China last year; Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) undertook a complete u-turn earlier this year, conceding that China was expected to beat Japan in PV installations in 2013, forecasting that China had installed around 12GW in 2013.

The Chinese market seems to be a hard one to judge. A country of a couple billion that is growing fast and can turn on a dime through top-down policies — what makes that such a hard market to estimate? 😉

Another reason IHS notes for its increase in demand is Japan’s fast growth. “According to the market research firm, installations in Japan are expected to increase by 45% to reach 9GW in 2014, up from 6.3GW project for 2013.”

“IHS expects the residential PV market in Japan to decline this year,” Sharma explained. “Although the reduction in Japan’s feed-in-tariff conformed precisely to IHS expectations, other factors will cause the residential market to decline. These factors include the increase in sales tax on domestic PV systems, the expiration of the additional up-front subsidy and the slowdown in new housing construction.”

However, IHS noted that weakness expected in the Japanese residential market would be more than compensated for by the strong commercial rooftop market.

Despite changing forecasts for 2014, IHS is sticking by its medium-term forecasts.

“The long-term IHS outlook for worldwide PV installations remains largely unchanged, with double-digit annual growth predicted for the next five years and total installed capacity exceeding 400GW at the end of 2018,” Sharma noted. “IHS has identified 32 countries that will install more than 100MW this year, and seven of these surpassing 1GW.”

While government policies are still important for solar growth, more and more regions are reaching or approaching incentive-free grid parity. Once that is the norm, solar forecasting might get a bit simpler. On the other hand, that could make forecasting even more difficult. Government targets and policy limits are fairly easy to follow, but what will happen when consumers see solar as a no-brainer even without government support?

Top image credit: NPD Solarbuzz Quarterly report, March 2014

Other images via PV-Tech

April 8, 2014 0 comment

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Residential PV Storage To Hit 2.5 GW By 2017

by Zach August 3, 2013

written by Zach

Market research firm IHS has projected in a new report that installed residential PV storage system capacity could likely hit 2.5 GW by 2017.

Naturally, Germany is leading the way in this arena, where a home energy storage subsidy went into place on May 1. In the leading solar PV country, it is increasingly competitive to store power collected via home solar panels and use it when the sun is down (especially in the early evening hours of peak demand and higher electricity prices). While this is still a very nascent market, it is increasingly attractive for consumers to generate and store electricity than to buy electricity from the grid.

“Residential PV customers are striving to maximise their own consumption of the energy they are generating,” said Abigail Ward, PV analyst at IHS.

This is because rising electricity prices and decreasing feed-in-tariffs are serving as a disincentive for consumers to export their power to the electricity grid.

Such developments, combined with the introduction of the German Energy Storage Subsidy, are forecast to accelerate the overall growth of the residential solar storage market.

“Not only will the incentive reduce the upfront cost of residential storage solutions deployed in Germany by up to 30%, it will also generate volume in this immature market—and price reductions achieved by mass production will also benefit installations in other countries,” said Sam Wilkinson, PV research manager and co-author of the report.

“For battery-based residential PV energy storage systems, IHS predicts an average cost reduction of around 45% during the next five years, largely due to decreases in battery prices.”

Previously, an IHS report projected that the PV storage would hit $19 billion by 2017.

August 3, 2013 0 comment

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Top Solar Power Companies…

by Zach July 13, 2013

written by Zach

Want to know which are the top solar power companies in the US, or in the world? For a thorough look at solar power companies leading various solar power markets and holding various solar power records, check out our Solar Energy & Solar Power Facts page. However, for a look simply at the top solar module manufacturers based on annual production, the top solar developers, and the top residential & commercial solar power companies, check out this nearly full repost from Cost of Solar:

Top Solar Power Companies

Top Solar Module Manufacturers

[Update] See: Top solar module manufacturers of 2013.

I’ve already taken a deep dive into solar panel efficiency leaders, so I’ll skip that today. The top solar module producers vary a bit depending on which market research firm you listen to, but here are a few rankings (quite similar) from two top cleantech market research companies, Solarbuzz and IHS:

Clearly, as of the end of 2012, Yingli Green Energy (a China-based solar module company) and First Solar (a US-based thin-film solar module company) are leading when it comes to solar module production. Trina or Suntech, both Chinese companies, came in at #3. However, Suntech has gone bankrupt, so it will see a steep fall in the 2013 rankings. Other than First Solar, the only other US company on the two lists is SunPower. SunPower, unlike First Solar and most of the others on the list, produces very high-efficiency solar modules — the most efficient on the market. That makes it a leader for residential solar power systems, where higher efficiency helps to maximize limited rooftop space.

July 13, 2013 22 comments

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Report: EU Anti-Dumping Duties Could Cost Continent 1.3 GW Of Solar

by Zach June 14, 2013

written by Zach

A new report from research group IHS has found that the EU’s anti-dumping duties on Chinese solar products, if implemented, will result in over 1.3 GW less solar power capacity being installed in the EU in 2013.

Photo Credit: Solar panels in Spanish mountains Steven2358 / Foter.com / CC BY-NC-SA

Photo Credit: Solar panels in Spanish mountains by Steven2358 | CC BY-NC-SA license

Overall, combined with solar incentive cuts, IHS projects that the EU will install 6 GW or 33% less solar power capacity in 2013 compared to 2012. Germany’s solar market is projected to decrease about 3 GW compared to 2012, while Italy’s is projected to do so by about 2 GW.

The positive news from the IHS report: global solar PV installations are supposed to be up about 4 GW or 11% in 2013, reaching 35 GW. The main driver for the growth is strong solar PV growth in Asia, particularly China, Japan, and India.

Regarding the European situation, here’s more: “Although the EU Commission has given a small window of opportunity by reducing the tariff to 11.8% for 60 days, IHS still expects dampened demand,” said Ash Sharma, IHS’ senior director of solar research. “This decline comes in stark contrast to the sharp increase in module shipments from China as buyers stockpile ahead of the next tariff increase in August. As a result, IHS has cut its European forecast for the second half of 2013 by 1.3 GW — a nearly 20% reduction from our previous outlook.”

The top 10 solar markets, according to IHS, are projected to be:

Clearly, Europe still makes a strong showing, especially when you take into account population and economic size.

June 14, 2013 0 comment

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